THE FALLACY

 

 

Water Supply and Demand:

 

2023 Supply and Demand Report Results:

 

https://www.azwater.gov/supply-demand

 

 

https://www.azwater.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/2023_DouglasAMA.pdf

 

The Fallacy:

 

1. The "supply" is not limited to the inputs from precipitation. The water supply contained in aquifers, both "stored" old water and new water is part of the TOTAL water supply. Stored water is not accounted for in the chart. Table 1 is misleading and paints a false narrative as explained below.

 

2. The "demand" infers that water demand is "water consumed" and is thereby subtracted. Water consumed or "used" is not "Gone" and does not disappear. Water is not subtracted as though it no longer exists. When water is used by agriculture, the largest percentage of the water is returned to the soil. Water that is not returned to the soil grows food for humans or animals. Water is evaporated directly or transpirated (evaporated indirectly).

 

A small fraction of groundwater is evaporated. That water exists as invisible water vapor. The water vapor rises into the atmosphere by thermal and orographic lift resulting in precipitation in the form of rain.

 

Orographic Lift:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orographic_lift

 

 

A casual observer will note that in summer months, heat rising in a vertical column that carries moisture in the form of water vapor thousands of feet into the atmosphere! The moist air cools and becomes saturated. As condensation occurs, we see billowing "cumulus" clouds. The clouds become "cumulo-nimbus" thunderstorms and the water returns to the earth!

 

Depending on the upper atmosphere, water vapor rising over the Mogollon Rim and the Colorado River basins may produce rain over Northern Cochise County. Southern Cochise County receives rain largely from evaporation in the Gulf of California. Moisture from farmland in southern Cochise County rises and causes precipitation in the Western Chiricahua mountains. That rainwater provides inflow to the eastern flank of sulfur springs valley.

 

Illustrating Supply and Demand in this manner paints a false narrative. The vertical bar chart gives the misconception of lower supply and greater demand. The assumption made by the viewer is that water on the demand side is gone! The water is NOT gone. The water was beneficially used by agriculture and a majority flows into the earth providing natural recharge of aquifers.

 

Most importantly, when looking at the surface of the earth in Arizona, approximately 20 percent of the surface is used for agriculture. Eighty percent of the surface is mountainous or inter-mountain. The majority of precipitation in the form of rainfall and snowfall is in non-agricultural regions!

 

Revised: 12-26-2023              © 2023 WELLOG                          ALL RIGHTS RESERVED