THE
FALLACY
Water
Supply and Demand:
2023 Supply and Demand Report Results:
https://www.azwater.gov/supply-demand
https://www.azwater.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/2023_DouglasAMA.pdf
The Fallacy:
1. The "supply" is not limited to the
inputs from precipitation. The water supply contained in aquifers, both
"stored" old water and new water is part of the TOTAL water supply.
Stored water is not accounted for in the chart. Table 1 is misleading and
paints a false narrative as explained below.
2. The "demand" infers that water demand
is "water consumed" and is thereby subtracted. Water consumed or
"used" is not "Gone" and does not disappear. Water is not
subtracted as though it no longer exists. When water is used by agriculture,
the largest percentage of the water is returned to the soil. Water that is not
returned to the soil grows food for humans or animals. Water is evaporated
directly or transpirated (evaporated indirectly).
A small fraction of groundwater is evaporated. That
water exists as invisible water vapor. The water vapor rises into the
atmosphere by thermal and orographic lift resulting in precipitation in the
form of rain.
Orographic
Lift:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orographic_lift
A casual observer will note that in summer months,
heat rising in a vertical column that carries moisture in the form of water
vapor thousands of feet into the atmosphere! The moist air cools and becomes
saturated. As condensation occurs, we see billowing "cumulus" clouds.
The clouds become "cumulo-nimbus" thunderstorms and the water returns
to the earth!
Depending on the upper atmosphere, water vapor
rising over the Mogollon Rim and the Colorado River basins may produce rain
over Northern Cochise County. Southern Cochise County receives rain largely
from evaporation in the Gulf of California. Moisture from farmland in southern
Cochise County rises and causes precipitation in the Western Chiricahua
mountains. That rainwater provides inflow to the eastern flank of sulfur
springs valley.
Illustrating Supply and Demand in this manner
paints a false narrative. The vertical bar chart gives the misconception of
lower supply and greater demand. The assumption made by the viewer is that
water on the demand side is gone! The water is NOT gone. The water was
beneficially used by agriculture and a majority flows into the earth providing
natural recharge of aquifers.
Most importantly, when looking at the surface of
the earth in Arizona, approximately 20 percent of the surface is used for
agriculture. Eighty percent of the surface is mountainous or inter-mountain.
The majority of precipitation in the form of rainfall and snowfall is in
non-agricultural regions!
Revised: 12-26-2023 © 2023 WELLOG ALL RIGHTS RESERVED